Flatten the Curve as used to describe the challenge facing the global environment was informed by an understanding that the Coronavirus virulence and infectivity will eventually impact a significant percent of the global population. While it is spreading exponentially without public health informed measures to slow down the spread, the number of people who are exposed, become infected, become symptomatic, and experience the severe manifestation of the COVID 19 and require enhanced limited health care resources can overwhelm the system’s capacity. Part of the increase in mortality is due to the inability to get the most appropriate respiratory support. There is some evidence that with the COVID 19 outbreak spread over time, most susceptible individuals will contract the virus.   

Goal:

The ideal goal in fighting an epidemic or pandemic is to completely halt the spread. But merely slowing it — mitigation — is critical. This reduces the number of cases that are active at any given time, which in turn gives doctors, hospitals, police, schools and vaccine-manufacturers time to prepare and respond, without becoming overwhelmed. Most hospitals can function with 10 percent reduction in staff, but not with half their people out at once.

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The Challenge:

Some commentators have argued for getting the outbreak over with quickly. That is a recipe for panic, unnecessary suffering and death. Slowing and spreading out the tidal wave of cases will save lives. Flattening the curve keeps society going

• Mitigation efforts like social distancing help reduce the disease caseload on any given date and can keep the healthcare system from becoming overwhelmed. 

• It is not clear whether the area under the two curves will be the same as the flattening occurs. This just highlights the impact on health care resources. 

• The gentler curve ultimately results in fewer people infected and fewer deaths. (Time to a vaccine, time to death from other causes. 

Background:

The Coronavirus that causes COVID 19  is highly contagious and rarely lethal has reached Pandemic proportions. The challenges associated with containing the pandemic are complex but not overwhelming. The social challenge is meeting the "demand" on the healthcare system during a local surge of cases. A coordinated effort involving individuals, communities and requires a multi-prong approach based on evolving scientific knowledge. 

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Social Distancing

Maintaining Distance

Staying Home (Self Quarantine) 

Radical Hand Washing

Face Masks

No travel

Lifestyle activities 

Public Information 

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Status Report

Take together the reduced spread through social distancing and the medical system being able to meet the COVID-19 need, and there is solid evidence that flattening the curve has worked.

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